Democrats Trying to Re-make Florida into Battleground State

California Congressman Henry Waxman (D) of California called on Jeb Bush to explain his role in the award of the "lucrative contract," which was given to the Florida-based company without a full competitive bid process. The e-mails Waxman released were provided to Congress by Michael Brown, former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The governor's spokesman, Russell Schweiss made a statement regarding the issue. "The governor's involvement was merely facilitating contact with a corporate citizen of Florida that was seeking to provide immediate housing relief. Any assertion the governor had to do with any contracting negotiations or further action by FEMA is unfounded."

Congressman Waxman is trying to make a scandal where there just isn't one. Sure it was a lucrative contract. Americans are familiar with the convenience store concept. You pay a premium for convenience and expediency.

The need for expediency was definitely evident in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane. Congressman Waxman wants to Know why Jeb didn't go through the slow bureaucratic process of competitive bids. If he had this would still be in a bidding situation.

This appears to be an attempt by Democrats to weaken Jeb's popularity in the state in order to take over the governor's mansion and other legislative seats. Should anything become of this it could put Florida in play for many seats this year and potentially for the 2008 Presidential elections.

My Little Experiment

Many of my readers questioned whether I was joking when I ran the piece concerning legislation to ban Republicans from adopting. For them I can answer that I was not joking. Nor was I sincere in my reporting.

That article was a social experiment. How often do we read articles that are incomplete, but fail to question whether what they tell us is true?

Now this was an easy one for people to identify as poorly written. But journalists often do the same thing. However it is much more difficult to recognize the fallacies in their writing (This is not a piece lamblasting the MSM). It is up to the reader to make an informed decision. Too often we take what we read at face value. This can be applied to almost every topic printed about the goings-on in government.

In my experiment, 10 people commented. Each referred to this as a response to the bill against adoptions by gay/ lesbian couples. But that was only part of what I was looking for in my experiment. I wanted to see if anybody would link to the bill itself (HB 515). Nobody did that. The best somebody did was link to another media story on the subject.

My point to all this. Information can be dangerous when used in an unsafe manner. The stories we write about have the ability to shape the way people make decisions such as voting. Too often do we give second hand reporting or put our own views in lew of the facts when we write.

Sorry to those who want to read the post from yesterday. It was never intended to stay up for more than a day. Here is the link from which it was derived from.

The Joke's on Blagojevich

In case yo haven't heard. Here is the story on how Comedy Central's John Stewart made a fool of Governor Rod Blagojevich. The Democratic governor says he didn't realize "The Daily Show" was a comedy spoof of the news when he sat down for an interview with the show.

In Blagojevich's defense, you hire staff to investigate these things ahead of time. When they fail to do their job this is what happens.

It never ceases to amaze me that shows like this are able to do this to cndidates year after year. Blagojevich won't be the last to have the object of such a prank.

This is a good lesson for all campaigns. Know who you're talking to. While it seems like an innocent incident it hurts a candidate's credibility. To seem clueless about pop culture turns away voters 35ish and under.

Liberal Theory: Conservative Women are Closet Lefties

Gun Toting Liberal made this remark on the virtual silence of the conservative blogosphere.

"Here is why I think the popular right wing bloggers are remaining largely silent on whether or not this was the right thing for the South Dakota lawmakers to do: if a large number of voices from the right were to begin weighing in with "yeah, let's ban all abortions" type opinions, you can just kiss the Republican Party and the conservative movement goodbye. It would amount to political suicide for them because I firmly believe that countless conservative women would suddenly move away from the Republican agenda to stand solidly with the left to defend a woman's right to choose."

I think this statement is an insult to conservative women who believe in family values. Furthermore I think he sees a fragility in the conservative movement that isn't there. What does he base his conclusions on? Had his hypothesis been even remotely correct President Bush would never had been elected let alone been elected let alone re-elected.

My thought as to why there hasn't been a lot of noise from conservatives on this matter. Because nothing's happened yet. We're waiting to see the process unfold. As things approach the Supreme Court for review there will be more gab.

Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu Challenges Ray Nagin For Mayor in Big Easy

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu entered the race for mayor of New Orleans citing new leadership is needed to "restore our credibility nationally and internationally."

The primary will enter unchartered territory for elections after more than half of its residents are still scattered across the country. Election activity is typically predictable and stable with a small portion acting as independents.

With voters scattered nobody is really sure what turnout will be like. They also aren’t sure what the political makeup is at this moment. Odds are its strongly Democrat but nobody will know until fall how much this political landscape has changed.

One thing is for sure. With a credible alternative, Ray Nagin is vulnerable to voters holding him accountable for his handling of Hurricane Katrina preparations.

Charlie Wilson Denied Spot on Ballot

Charlie Wilson's attempt to succeed Ted Strickland as a Congressman from Ohio has become a little more difficult. The election board in Lisbon Ohio ruled that he did not file enough signatures to be put on the ballot for the primary. Currently his only recourse is through legal or procedural challenges.

If he is unable to win these challenges Democrats will have failed to put a candidate on the ballot for a seat that they traditionally hold. This would be an unanticipated pickup for the Republicans.

Congress, the Catspaw of the President

A member at Redstate made this observation regarding the port deal.

"One must wonder if the White House did not want this deal with the UAE, but couldn't say no, so they've let Congress do it for W and W comes out looking like roses to the allies."

I'm not convinced. But if it is then this would be a brilliant move using Congress as his catspaw.

Is Prayer Bill a Political Ploy?

The ACLU states that legislation introduced by Mike Sodrel is nothing more than a political ploy.
The bill would prevent federal courts from ruling on the content of speech in legislatures. It is in response to a ruling by Judge David Hamilton who said that Indiana House sessions could not begin by endorsing any particular religion.

I agree on concept. It is not the state's job to "endorse" religion. But when a statesman stands before his peers and prays it is not for the state. It is for his/ her own moral and religious guidance in the decisions they are about to make. Its that person's right under the constitution to have freedom of speech.

Was this bill a political ploy? Most certainly. But it was a political ploy in response to a political ploy by a Judge legislating from the bench.

Sorry if I seem cynical about the ACLU but that is because of their history of discriminatory practices in fighting for civil rights.

Has President Bush Exhausted His Political Capital?

The port deal has caused a rift between the President and his party. Some members of Congress, U.S. Senators, and Governors belonging to the Republican party are voicing their concerns about the port deal that would see 6 U.S. ports managed by a firm from the United Arab Emirates.

I won't argue whether this is a good deal or not. Its the public relations sell that is killing this deal. The White House has not done a good enough job to prove that this is a safe deal. If they can't give details to the public due to national security, fine. But the fact that members of Congress and the Senate are being left in the dark just gives the impression that the deal isn't as good as the President implies.

The President isn't in a position to try a strong armed tactic on this issue. he's on the defensive and needs to prove what he says about the deal.

Democrats Not Taking Advantage of Bob Ney's Vulnerability

Bob Ney is supposededly a top target for Democrats due to ties to Jack Abramoff. But they haven't been able to get a candidate to take him on.

Ney will face challenges from either Joe Salzer or Zach Space to retain his job. Neither of these candidates can beat him. Their opponent can only lose.

But there is a bigger story here. With a republican candidate so vulnerable and high profile, the Democrats seem to have dropped the ball. They could have really hammered the Republicans with a strong candidate sending shockwaves reverberating through the opposing party.

The Democrats problem in this case is that the Ney District has a conservative base. The only candidate that could stand a chance at winning would be a moderate. Moderate Democratic candidates don't seem to be the focus of the Democratic party at the moment. Thus the lack of a high profile candidate

Politics of Abortion

The Supreme Court is scheduled to take arguments this fall on whether "partial birth abortion" is constitutional or not. If the High Court rules reinstates the 2003 law banning the practice look for conservatives and liberal candidates alike to use it as their platform.

Its an understatement to say that both sides of the argument are passionate about their cause. That being said, candidates must tread lightly before plunging their political aspirations into the fray.

How will things play if the law is reinstated? That depends on where you are. There are pockets within both red and blues states that play opposite of what one would assume.

Rendell Opposes Voter ID Bill

Governor Ed Rendell said that he'll veto a bill that would require voters to show identification at the polls because he believes such a mandate is unconstitutional and would disenfranchise some of the state's most vulnerable residents.

We have to show Id to get into bars, write checks, and a lot of other everyday tasks. As long as the bill provides a for the poor to have ID's without economic burden, then there is no justification for this veto. If people are disenfranchised from voting because they have to show an ID then they have other problems. Other states have passed similar measures in order to combat voter fraud.

Rendell cited the opinion from the League of Women Voters that there has been no evidence of election fraud in his state. Sorry Rendell, that's not an unbiased source. Tennessee, Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia and Wisconsin have all recently been investigated for voter fraud.

Deroy Murdock from the National Review, notes that unchecked voter fraud is widespread partly because it is so rarely met with swift, stiff punishment.

A Rasmussen poll finds that 82 percent of Americans, including 75 percent of Democrats, believe that "people should be required to show a driver's license or some other form of photo ID before they are allowed to vote."

So what is the real reason for this veto? The investigations of each of the above states were into actions by liberal and Democratic party supporters. Rendell is afraid his party will be adversely affected, not the voter.

Thanks to Michelle Malkin for some fact finding

Ports and Politics

The President's port deal as we know it is a questionable. That being said there will be Republicans who will win politically in the fight against the deal.

New York Gov. George Pataki and Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich have questioned the aquisition of a British company running 6 U.S. ports by and Arabic company. National Security trumps economics is their mantra.

Both Congress and the Senate have also had bipartisan criticism for the deal.

By not going on the party line with the President these figures could reach voters beyond their party base. The only question is where does this issue stand come November, and how much of an opposition were they to it.

President Carter Could Sabotage Son's Senate Run With Statements

This site featured an article about Jack Carter and his bid for a U.S. Senate seat. In that article, found here, I stated that President Carter could be a liability if he were to move out of the shadows from his son's campaign. He's now become that liability.

Former President Jimmy Carter published an opinion piece in the Washington Post that stated the U.S. and Israeli governments should allow the Palestinians to form a government without sanctions. It appears he is Pro-Hamas or at the very least an appeaser thereto.

This is exactly what his son's campaign did not need. The President is becoming a distraction that to Jack's campaign. The campaign cannot put all of its resources towards its own goals if it has to defend statements of his father.

This is a free country and President Carter is afforded the freedoms to say as he wishes. However, it is strategically the wrong time for him to say something controversial. This is the type of statement that can undermind his son's campaign.

Was Activist Campaign Financed By Taxpayers?

According to Hugh Hewitt, the LA Times is soft in their investigation of Rob Reiner's First Five State Commission. You can visit Hewitt's article on the LA Times coverage here. I am going to stick to what the political landscape to what this story might be.

While the topic seems benign the controversy is about Reiner's conflict of interst as the sponsor of Prop 82, which seeks to raise 2.4 billion from from a 1/7% tax hike on Californians making more than $400,000 anually.

Reiner spent $25 million on an ad campaign "preschool for all." That is the largest state-funded ad campaign in the California's history. The ad campaign coincided with the petition drive to get Prop 82 on the ballot.

The question raised by many was whether Reiner used his official capacity a director to use state funds to push his activist agenda onto the ballot.

The person who can be affected the most by this is Governor Schwarzenegger. With mounting criticism on his leadership abilities he needs to take action of some sort. California Republicans are asking why he hasn't replaced Reiner, who's appointment to the commission expired before Arnold was governor. At the very least he needs to make a public investigation into the matter.

If the governor doesn't act on the issue in some manner he will lose his base and chances at re-election in the fall.

Paul Hackett Revenging Party Abandonment

Paul Hackett is bitter and getting his revenge. The Toledo Blade reports that his campaign did some opposition research just before he quit the race and is now revealing that research to the public for Mike DeWine's campaign to use against Hackett's former primary opposition Sherrod Brown.

The research released about Brown was something everybody can do. It looked at his congressional record on bills concerning national security. This stuff is public record. The Toledo Blade cited several instances that show weaknesses for Brown on this issue.

There are several campaign lessons that can be learned from this.

• Prepare a campaign to defend against every possible source of opposition. Democrats took for granted that Hackett would take one for the team when they made the strategic switch to Brown. Open communication between party leaders and Hackett might have prevented this situation.
• Know who your opponent has hired. Consultants show themselves through their work. Their past often reveals their preferred tactics, messages, and ethics. You can anticipate what their future actions will be based on how they handled similar situations in the past.
• Treat members of your party with care. Scorn them and be prepared to pay a price.

There is one other thing that can hurt Brown. But its not related to the Hackett issue. It was in a quote by Brown at the the end of the Toledo Blade article.

"On most issues, voters are where I am."

Brown has been trying to position himself as a mainstream candidate. With that comment he implied that he wasn't mainstream with voters on some issues. Don't give voters a reason not to vote for you.

Democratic Candidate's Campaign in Jeopardy

Ohio state Sen. Charlie Wilson withdrew a batch of signatures that he had filed on Monday because he thought he could get more signatures and resubmit them to the county election board. He is the only candidate for the Democrats in the 6th District Congressional race. It is currently held by Ted Strickland who is a Democratic candidate for governor. The district is heavily Democrat. A lack of a candidate would be a major blunder for Democrats.

A spokesperson, Carlo LoParo, for Secretary of State Ken Blackwell said "On the surface, it does appear to be a problematic issue for Mr. Wilson."

The fact that the phrase "on the surface" was in the comment makes me tend to beleive a compromise may be worked out. John Payne, director of the Columbiana County Elections Board, said he believes Wilson's initial filing should be approved when the county elections board meets Wednesday. Payne, a Democrat, says he would like to be appointed to replace Wilson as a state senator if he wins the congressional race.

Ah, for the days when the only problem Mr. Wilson had was that kid Dennis from next door.

Democrats not Happy With Ads Featuring Families of Fallen Soldiers

Donna Cassutt, Associate Chair,Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party sent this e-mail to fellow DFL members. It wants its supporters to complain to the T.V. stations airing the advertisements featuring soldiers and the parents of fallen soldiers supporting the war in Iraq. They want to get the ads removed from the airwaves before they hit national airwaves.

Dear DFLer,
I’ve heard from many of you that you are disturbed by the misleading "Midwest Heroes" ads produced by Progress for America Voter Fund that are currently being run by KARE 11 and WCCO. The ads erroneously make a connection between Iraq and the 9/11 terrorists attacks and suggest that the war in Iraq will prevent an attack by Al Queda in America. The 9/11 Commission findings clearly state that there was no connection between Iraq and the the Al Queda terrorists attacks on 9/11. We must call for media responsibility regarding this issue. We have extraordinary sympathy for our troops and their families and believe that while our soldiers’ role is to protect the citizens of our country, it is our role as citizens to protect our soldiers and to make certain that they are not misused. It is a travesty that the tragedies of five countries and the deaths of our brave men and women are being used in this type of propaganda.Right now, our state is a testing ground for these ads. If Minnesota speaks out and says no to this ad, the entire country can thank us. What we do here, now, will have an enormous impact on the success or failure of this kind of swiftboating in 06.
You can view the ads at: http://www.midwestheroes.com/
Additionally, WCCO did a Reality Check stating that the ad is misleading and partly true, which in my mind means that it is partly false. See it at: http://www.wcco.com/video/?id=14609@wcco.dayport.com
If you feel that this ad is doing a disservice to our troops and is misleading at best, and pure propaganda at worst, please call:
KARE 11 at 763 546 1111
WCCO at 612 370 0611
to ask for the removal of the ads. Letters to the Editor in your local paper would be helpful to point out the untruths being communicated to citizens as fact. Thanks in advance for being a voice of truth, and for all that you do to improve the state of our nation and state.
DFL Chair Brian Melendez will be holding a press conference at the State Capitol today at 2:30 to ask that this ad be pulled from the air waves. He will be joined by congressional candidate and veteran Tim Walz. Please tune in to your evening news to see coverage of this important event.
Sincerely,
Donna
Donna Cassutt, Associate Chair,Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party

DFL's intention was to contain these ads to Minnesota and keep them from being used nationally. This intent backfired when the e-mail came into circulation. Their protest of the ads has only caused more attention to be brought to the ads.

It still remains to be seen as to whether this incident will have additional public relations implications on the DFL or Progress For America Voter Fund who produced the ads.

Midwest Heroes Videos
Thanks to Powerline for the copy of the DFL email

Agreement Made in Warrentless Surveillance Program

Senate Intelligence Chairman Pat Roberts said he has worked out an agreement with the White House to change U.S. law regarding the National Security Agency's warrantless surveillance program and provide more information about it to Congress.

This was done in order to eliminate the need for an inquiry into the program. An investigation could extend the life of the wiretapping issue as a campaign tool for Democrats.

Though Roberts believes the agreement will make the matter go away, I don't believe that the Democrats are going to allow it to die down that easily.

Poll States Rendell Edging Swann

According to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac Polling Institute Rendell leads Swann 48-36%. As a person who is skeptical of any poll, especially one which gets touted by the news media, I had to look further into their polling record to see how accurate they have been in the past. If they have a strong record then maybe I'll put a little credence into the poll.

To be fair I also took a look at a Rasmussen Report. This report is a month old already but I will revisit it again when the new poll appears. They show that Rendell leads Swann by a 45-43% margin. That is not even close to the spread given by Quinnipiac.

I did some digging and found a report on polling done by SurveyUSA. Here are their findings.

• As far as accuracy Rasmussen was wrong in 1 of 39 polls while Quinnipiac was perfect on all five it conducted.
• 5.1% of Rasmussen's polls were outside of the margin of sampling error compared to 20% to Quinnipiac. Only the Global Strategy Group (28%) and the LA Times (40%) did worse.
• Using the Mosteller, Traugott, and Shipman methods to determine the average error on the margin of victory Rasmussen did better than Quinnipiac in all methods.

Given that evidence I would say that Rasmussen's numbers are more credible. This race is nowhere near a walk in the park for Rendell as Quinnipiac proclaims.

I also looked at other polls done by Quinnipiac and it raises questions about their polling samples.

• They said that Rendell would win big over Fisher in the 2002 governor's race. While Rendell did win, he only gathered 54% of the vote. That is hardly a big win.
• Last December they polled Americans on Alito. They said the public was mixed on Alito and that he should state his position on abortion.
• Last May they say Americans support Roe Vs Wade by 2-1 and support a filibuster on judicial nominees.

The results of these polls make me question their objectivity in their polling.
Again the moral of this story is never take numbers from polls on faith. Either do your own research or look at a number of polls to get an overall look at things.

Two Construction Unions Exiting AFL-CIO

Things are set for another shake-up in organized labor. According to the Wall Street Journal The once mighty AFL-CIO is losing two more unions to its roles bring the number to six within the last year.

Laborers' International Union of North America and International Union of Operating Engineers announced that they are leaving the AFL-CIO citing that there is an environment of bureacracy within the Building and Construction Trades Department that is out of touch with their needs. The Building and Construction Trades Department is a subgroup of the AFL-CIO.

This is bad news for Democratic party candidates. The power of the AFL-CIO were the amount of manpower it possessed. As it fractionalizes it loses that power. Now resources will go in multiple and possibly opposing directions.

Wise Words on Political Involvement

After more than a decade of writing for Campaigns and Elections Ron Faucheux is leaving the magazine to join U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (D) from Louisiana as her Chief of Staff. In his final commentary he offered some words of wisom to all involved in politics.

"I am compelled to make the case that for political involvement to be worthwhile - for it to merit the sleepless nights, the begging for money, the blood-thirsty antagonism and the endless hours of back-breaking exertion - it must be about something more than just winning and personal ambition."

""But for democracy to work as a system, and for the people it is meant to serve, winning is only the start of it. After you win, you then have to govern, and the governing part - the part that matters most to voters - is something that's far too easy for political practitioners to lose sight of in our attempts simply to win elections."
Campaigns and Elections, February 2006

These are words of advice all of us in politics need to adhere to.

Congresswoman Demands President and Attorney General Give Wiretapping Documents to Congress

Congresswoman Louise Slaughter proposed bill HR 644 to the House Judiciary Committee. Here is the preamble of that bill explaining its purpose.

Requesting the President and directing the Attorney General to transmit to the House of Representatives not later than 14 days after the date of the adoption of this resolution documents in the possession of those officials relating to the authorization of electronic surveillance of citizens of the United States without court approved warrants.

This was not a bill of substance. There was never any chance it would pass out of Committee due to an investigation already in progress by the Department of Justice. The Committee in fact felt that to make documents public related to national security would set a dangerous precedent. I agree with that assessment. Congress is the biggest source for Washington gossip.

This bill was a designed for campaign strategy. The Democrats need to keep the wire-tapping issue at the forefront of voters minds. They have to maintain their push to keep a potential weakness of the Republicans in the headlines.

The problem with this tactic is that it can only be maintained for so long. It takes a lot of effort to keep a headline fresh. This issue will only make it to voters in November if there are further developments in the investigation between now and November. Any attempt to manufacture a way to keep it at the top of the news would result in a backlash at the polls.

Partisan Politics and the MSM

Sorry for this rant.

Bloggers make no apologies for being partisian. They tend to wear their politics on their sleeves. But I have an issue with the main stream media telling us that they give fair an unbiased journalism when they really don't.

How often do we hear something criticising Republicans whether it be Bush, Abramoff, or Delay. We also see them dig hard to find dirt on many others of one party such as Pombo, Allen, and Blackwell. They run these stories into the ground keeping them on the front pages for months without any new "real" evidence of wrong-doing.

But on the flip side, what kind of coverage do the same newspapers offer on the behavior of Democrats? They give a short paragraph and hide the story on page 28 to their wrong-doings if they print it at all.

These are stories that would have been front page news for at least a week if not more if they had been Republicans.

Congressman William Jefferson is being investigated for bribery
Harry Reid/ Jack Abramoff connection
Hillary Clinton's Campaign Finance Probe
Jim Doyle's "Travelgate"

Many may disagree with me but I don't see the majority of the media putting as much effort in searching for misconduct in Democrats as they do in Republicans.

Related stories from Politicalnut: Harry Reid Connected to Abramoff, Politics Ain't Easy in the Big Easy No More (Part II), Accusations Fly in Trial of Wisconsin Campaign Workers, Most Corrupt Congress?

Scalia on the "Living Constitution"

The issue of whether or not our constitution is a "living document" is bound to be an issue on the campaign trail this fall. It always is.

While giving a speech on Monday to the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies Scalia criticized those who believe in what he called the "living Constitution." Here is what he said.

"That's the argument of flexibility and it goes something like this: The Constitution is over 200 years old and societies change. It has to change with society, like a living organism, or it will become brittle and break."
"But you would have to be an idiot to believe that. The Constitution is not a living organism, it is a legal document. It says something and doesn't say other things."
Proponents of the living constitution want matters to be decided not by the people, but by the justices of the Supreme Court."
"They are not looking for legal flexibility, they are looking for rigidity, whether it's the right to abortion or the right to homosexual activity, they want that right to be embedded from coast to coast and to be unchangeable."

How will this issue play in campaigns? Proponents of a living constitution will make no headway in their arguments to the people. There are only a handful of areas in the entire country where this issue can get into any sort traction. But campaigns across the country will try to use it.

Hackett Feels Betrayed By Democrats

“For me, this is a second betrayal. First, my government misused and mismanaged the military in Iraq, and now my own party is afraid to support candidates like me.”

Those were the words of Paul Hackett after he announced he would drop out of the race for Ohio Senate. He claims that Senators Schumer and Reid asked him to step aside to let Congressman Sherrod Brown contest Senator Mike DeWine's incumbancy. These Senators had been instrumental in persuading Hackett to challenge DeWine before Brown declared his candidacy.

This was clearly a strategical decision for the Democrats as Brown was out-performing Hackett in fundraising (a key element in a contentious general election). By forcing Hackett out the Democratic hierarchy is hoping to unite the party behind a single candidate.

Though the tactic is distasteful it was probably a smart decision by Democrats.

NY Times article

Celebrity Candidate vs Incumbent, a Breakdown of the Pennsylvania Race for Governor

In a normal statewide race in Pennsylvania one would expect a Democrat to be the victor. The cities of Pittburgh and Philadelphia are too heavily Democrat for Republicans to win. Democrats win these types of races 64% of the time with an average margin of 52%. Incumbent Democrats get around 57% of the vote.

So what about this year's governor's race? The keyword in the above statement is that the race is normal. Lynn Swann is not a normal candidate. He is known as a celebrity candidate. Here is a breakdown of how the celebrity factor can help Swann's campaign.

He has the network available to get financial backers from the start of his campaign.

His voter recognition numbers are higher than the incumbent due to being in the NFL and network television for more than 30 years.

Swann has the ability to move more voters to his side than Rendell. I say this because people are more firm in their opinions of experienced politicians. Lynn Swann, though highly recognizable even among non-voters, is still considered a political neophyte. He can win people over if he demonstrates that he has a firm grasp on the job and the issues of the people.

NOTE: Being a celebrity candidate can also hurt you. If you can't demonstrate that you can do the job you may be eaten alive by voters (see the Arnold Schwarzenegger saga).

In addition to being a celebrity Lynn Swann has who he is and what he has done to help him win.

In the NFL he played for the Pittsburgh Steelers during their "Steel Curtain" days. Pittsburgh fans have the loyalty that goes beyond political parties. He will steal votes from Democrats who are Steelers fans. With the win in the Super Bowl look for a strong Steelers faction at the polls to support Swann.

He is also an African-American. African-American candidates usually get stronger support from African-American voters. What makes this significant for Lynn Swann is that African-Americans tend to vote for Democrats.

The combination of the above two factors are related. They will allow Swann to weaken the Democratic stronghold of those urban areas. He may even win some of areas in and surrounding Pittsburgh which is unheard of in a Republican candidate.

Rendell won his last election by less than 150,000 votes. If half of those people (plus 1) vote for Swann, Swann wins. That is less than 2% of the expected turnout for this race. With all the factors mentioned earlier I think Lynn Swann can easily get those numbers.

Official Lynn Swann for Governor site

More from Howard "the Mouth" Dean

Here is a quote from Howard Dean in an interview published in today's Salem News.

"When Richard Nixon mislead the nation and obstructed justice he was harming the system of justice and the respect for the presidency," the Democratic National Committee chairman said. "But this administration has done more than that. They have leaked military secrets in a time of war in order to fulfill their political agenda."

Dean is the best tool Republicans have to help them keep control of the White House, Senate, and Congress. The leader of a leading political party should be more careful when making abrasive comments.

The intent for the many comments and accusations that Howard Dean has thrown out to the public is intended to ignite the support of his party's base. Such a tactic can work but can work against you just as easily.

A rally cry for your base should never be as such that it can incite your opposition's base. This is especially so if you are the minority party. What's the good if you get your base to the polls but lose because you got more of your opponent's base to the polls as well?

See Story

Harry Reid Connected to Abramoff

The Democrats have called the Abramoff scandal a Republican problem and have the repeatedly stated that culture of corruption in Congress is a problem only for Republicans. Howard Dean has stated numerous times that no Democrat received any money from Jack Abramoff or his clients.

The associated Press found billings and correspondence for a period of more than three years between Minority Leader Senator Harry Reid and Jack Abramoff's clients, firm, and lobbying partners. Reid received around $68,000 in donations from them.

As far as political ramifications this has the potential to hurt Democrats. Reid had been a vocal critic on the Republicans and corruption. But by having connections to the Abramoff's firm and receiving money from it Reid loses some credibility to lead the charge on the matter.

Reid doesn't need to have done something wrong for this to hurt him. If public perception associates him with Abramoff then the damage is done.

The political damage goes farther than Reid. It weakens the ability of the Democrats to use the "culture of corruption" as a campaign issue.

In fact, this could help Republicans. The attacks on Republican corruption had fallen from the foreground n the headlines and was replaced by Democratic antics in the Alito hearings and vote. If more Democrats are found to have the same type of connections to Abramoff as Senator Reid, look for the Republicans to take the momentum with the issue. Campaigns are often won on such momentum.

Democratic leaders such as Harry Reid, Howard Dean, and the bunch need to remember a basic rule of politics. Never make an absolute.

Olympics and Politics

As the Olympic games start today it is only fitting to do a spot on them.

The charter for the Olympics is for people to put aside their differences for a short period of time and enjoy the camaraderie of each other, and compete for the joy of sports. It was meant as a time for politics and rivalry to be left behind.

The reality of the Olympics is the competitiveness exhibited between rival countries, and the political games sometimes played between nations. Here are some of the most notable moments where politics was an Olympic event.

• 1936 Berlin: Jesse Owens vs Hitler
• 1952 Helsinki: Eastern bloc refuses to share Olympic Village
• 1956 Melbourne: Suez crisis and Soviet invasion of Hungary overshadow Games
• 1964 Tokyo: South Africa not invited because of Apartheid
• 1968 Mexico: Mexican Massacre
• 1972 Munich: Munich Massacre
• 1976 Montreal: 22 African nations boycott over apartheid
• 1980 Moscow: US, West Germany and Japan boycott
• 1984 Los Angeles: Soviet team holds revenge boycott

But not all political ties to the Olympics are bad. In an era when the cold war was at its peak, a team comprised of mainly no-names, led by coach Herb Brooks defeated a Russian powerhouse that had not been beaten in more than a decade.

The moment was the sports version of the space-race and has been dubbed Miracle on Ice.

Lt. Gov. Healey for Massachusetts Governor

Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey announced she will make a bid to become governor. If elected, she would become the state's first elected woman governor. Her platform is lower taxes and education reform.

Its hard to imagine a Republican in charge of the state the Kennedy's built. But Healey, if successful, would be replacing Republican Mitt Romney.

Her chances aren't as bad as they would appear at first. The Democratic base in the state is migrating out of state and many who remain are disenfranchised by how the party is being led. The Mass. GOP has not been able to take advantage of the trend. For her to win, Healey must find a way to engage those disenfranchised voters.

James Webb Enters Virginia Senate Race

James Webb, former Navy Secretary, announced that he will fight Harris Miller for the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbant George Allen (R) for US Senate.

Webb served as Navy Secretary during the Reagan era. Webb has the political knowledge to give a strong campaign.

He also is deep in political connections. However, it remains to be seen whether those connections back Webb. In 1994 Webb backed Senator Chuck Robb when he was challenged by Oliver North. But in 2000, Webb switched allegiances to George Allen when he challenged Robb.

At this point I'm not sure who will win this primary, which is set for June 13. Whoever it is will face a tough challenge against former Governor and incumbant Senator George Allen.

Looking deeper into the Ohio Governor's Race

If you look at the map below you would say that there is a lot of red. That means that Ken Blackwell won a lot of counties in his 2002 race for Secretary of State. So you would assume that he has a strong advantage over his Democratic rival Ted Strickland.

That assumption could be wrong. Strickland is a popular Congressman from the eastern part of the state. This means that the results for Blackwell in those areas will be even softer than they were when he ran four years ago.

Strickland has his issues too. He hasn't run for a statewide race as highly profiled as this. While he is popular with his party, he must run a race beyond his congressional district and into the rest of the state that is strongly Republican.


What are Strickland Opportunities in this race?

• Republican scandals may have shaken the confidence of Blackwell's base as well as independents. A large DEM turnout could shift the election in his favor
• He is from the most Democratic congressional district in the state. He is a vote leader in that area

What are Blackwell's Opportunities?

• He is an experience campaigner in a statewide campaign
• He has higher name recognition statewide
• As an African-American he could steal minority votes from the Democrats

What Are Strickland's Weaknesses?

• Hasn't run a statewide race
• Democrats don't rule urban areas in Ohio like they do in other states. They only control the counties where Cleveland and Youngstown sit.
• Most counties are Republican

What are Blackwell's Weaknesses?

• The GOP as a party is vulnerable due to many issues
• Blackwell's results from 2002 were below the norm for a statewide Republican candidate (see the map below). That means that the party base wasn't nearly behind him as they were other candidates in that year.

What is my Projection for this race?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Blackwell wins with 55-58% of the vote.

Scranton Quits PA Governor Race

Bill Scranton quit the race for Penssylvania's governor on Tuesday. He cited that his decision was based on his belief that he could not garner the support from party leadership.

The Scranton campaign has been in a tail-spin since the incident that resulted in the firing of his campaign manager a couple of weeks ago.

Scranton's decision opens up the Swann campaign to concentrate on their November opponent, current Governor Ed Rendell. This is bad news for Rendell who hoped for Swann and Scranton to fight for position and split their party faithful's loyalties.

Right now most polls favor Swann over Rendell. It is always a bad sign for an incumbant to have less than 55% in the polls, especially this early in an election season.

Now that the primary has been decided, I will give a deeper analysis of this campaign next week .

Son of Former President Running for U.S. Senate

Jack Carter announced he was joining the Democratic ticket in challenging Republican Senator John Ensign. He made the announcement from a union hall in Las Vegas.

Jack's pedigree as first son will help him with credibility and name recognition. This race will definitely be one to watch as Carter could make a strong run at Ensign. In order to do so he will have to do something counter-intuative. He needs to keep his dad out of the campaign as much as possible.

One would think that having a President in your corner would be a good thing. However, President Carter has made some poor PR decisions as of late that could minimize his son's political power. His comments on how the U.S. should deal with Hamas as well as his association with a key figure in the oil-for-food scandal in Iraq could be a potential liability to his son.

Judging from how things were done with this campaign at this point it looks like Jack has found the best possible use for President Carter in his campaign. The President never spoke during the announcement preferring not to steal his son's thunder. Afterwards he told the press that he will work mainly on the fundraising side of the campaign.

Denver Mayor - No to Gubernatorial Bid

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper announced that he will not join the race for governor of Colorado. He stated his decision was based on an unfinished job in Denver.

"We have begun so many programs and so many initiatives with the city," he said. "We got a bunch of them done but there are still some big ones that aren't done. One of the reasons I ran for elected office was I wanted to show people that local government could carry through on its commitments, that it would practice what it preaches, that people could put the good of this city above their own personal ambition."

This comes as a blow to the Colorado Democratic party as Hickenlooper was considered to be the top vote-getter out of all their possible candidates. His popularity as mayor of the largest concentration of voters in the state would have made him a formidable candidate.

Bill Ritter is now their lead candidate. Currently polls show him not as popular as either GOP candidate Marc Holtzman or Bob Beauprez.

This race was considered a strong possibility as a grab by the Democratic party. The potential is still there but is no longer as promising as before today.

Campaigns - Week in Review

All eyes were on the Samuel Alito confirmation, State of the Union Address, and the Republican leadership voting. Here is a quick rundown of the rest of this week's happenings.

Swann Closes in on Party Endorsement

Lynn Swann received 33 verbal supports from county party leaders. If everyone stays to their commitments then Swann would have the 180 votes needed to garner the state party's endorsement in the primary on May 16. The vote for endorsement is February 11. Scranton has vowed to stay in the race no matter what the results of the caucus. His campaign has really stumbled after the incident with his former campaign manager.

Reilly Doesn't Do Homework on Running Mate

Massachussetts Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Reilly received an embarrassment when his running mate Marie St. Fleur dropped out of the race after one day. Her reason for dropping out was because of $12,000 in unpaid taxes owed to the IRS and defaulting in $40,000 in college loans. Reilly should have done his homework before he put his own reputation on the line.

Schwarzeneggar Out Of Money

Schwarzeneggar's campaign has made a severe blunder over the last year. They spent $44 million dollars last year on unsuccessful special election initiatives. This has left his campaign with less than $150,000 for this campaign season and a debt load of about half a million dollars. The question remains, why did he spend all of his money the year before an election. The only conclusion I can think of is that he doesn't think he can win so he tried to put everything he had on the initiatives. Its a case of putting all your eggs in one basket. Unfortunately for Arnold, he dropped the basket.

Boehner Wins

John Boehner defeated Roy Blunt in the second round of voting. The results were 122-109.

Though public support was behind John Shadegg, the Arizona Congressman dropped out of the first round after receiving 44 votes.

Blunt edged Boehner in the first round. It appears that those who voted for Shadegg moved their allegiance to Boehner and that gave him the votes for the victory.

Sheehan and the ACLU, More Complimentary Than Peanut Butter and Jelly

Q: What goes better together than peanut butter and jelly?

A: America's favorite mother and litigation unit.

Thats right. Cindy Sheehan is claiming her civil rights were violated last night after being tossed from the SOTU. You can bet its only a matter of time before the seekers of justice, the ACLU, will come to her aid.

Both have independently pushed their agenda to the point of nausia. Put the two together and they give a new meaning to the loony left.

Maybe PB and J is the wrong analogy. I should have used ice cream and cake. Getting too much ice cream too fast can really give you a headache.

Voters are Stupid

Most voters really are stupid. People should vote for a candidate based on the ideas and qualifications of the candidate. Unfortunately that rarely happens. Approximately 20% base their electoral decisions in such a way.

In my experience with campaigns here are how the majority of voters make their decisions.

My parents and my grandparents voted for the (place name of party here) party so I will vote for the candidate of that party.

At first glance their is no issue with this type of voter. It is alright to take the views of those whom you respect into consideration when making decisions. However, This type of voter will not vote in a race if they don't like the candidate of their party. Nor will they cross party lines to vote for a candidate they like of a different party.

I will vote for the candidate with the most yard signs.

The rationale for these voters is that this is the candidate that has worked the hardest campaign and thus deserves their vote. This is bad because anybody with a financial backer can put out yard signs regardless of what they stand for.

I recognize this candidate's name

This is for voters who have got absolutely no clue, but they see a familiar name on the ballot. This is why campaigns spend so much money on advertising. How else could anyone explain Arnold Schwarzneggar winning the Governor's race in California (let alone a a Republican).

This candidate has the popular support in the polls

As I have written in Why I hate polls, polls can be both deceiving as well as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Basing a decision on a poll creates mob behavior.

I could go on for forever on these kinds of issues. Basically I'm saying don't be a stupid voter. Base your vote on the merit of the candidate and how their ideals match up to your own.