Celebrity Candidate vs Incumbent, a Breakdown of the Pennsylvania Race for Governor
In a normal statewide race in Pennsylvania one would expect a Democrat to be the victor. The cities of Pittburgh and Philadelphia are too heavily Democrat for Republicans to win. Democrats win these types of races 64% of the time with an average margin of 52%. Incumbent Democrats get around 57% of the vote.
So what about this year's governor's race? The keyword in the above statement is that the race is normal. Lynn Swann is not a normal candidate. He is known as a celebrity candidate. Here is a breakdown of how the celebrity factor can help Swann's campaign.
He has the network available to get financial backers from the start of his campaign.
His voter recognition numbers are higher than the incumbent due to being in the NFL and network television for more than 30 years.
Swann has the ability to move more voters to his side than Rendell. I say this because people are more firm in their opinions of experienced politicians. Lynn Swann, though highly recognizable even among non-voters, is still considered a political neophyte. He can win people over if he demonstrates that he has a firm grasp on the job and the issues of the people.
NOTE: Being a celebrity candidate can also hurt you. If you can't demonstrate that you can do the job you may be eaten alive by voters (see the Arnold Schwarzenegger saga).
In addition to being a celebrity Lynn Swann has who he is and what he has done to help him win.
In the NFL he played for the Pittsburgh Steelers during their "Steel Curtain" days. Pittsburgh fans have the loyalty that goes beyond political parties. He will steal votes from Democrats who are Steelers fans. With the win in the Super Bowl look for a strong Steelers faction at the polls to support Swann.
He is also an African-American. African-American candidates usually get stronger support from African-American voters. What makes this significant for Lynn Swann is that African-Americans tend to vote for Democrats.
The combination of the above two factors are related. They will allow Swann to weaken the Democratic stronghold of those urban areas. He may even win some of areas in and surrounding Pittsburgh which is unheard of in a Republican candidate.
Rendell won his last election by less than 150,000 votes. If half of those people (plus 1) vote for Swann, Swann wins. That is less than 2% of the expected turnout for this race. With all the factors mentioned earlier I think Lynn Swann can easily get those numbers.
Official Lynn Swann for Governor site
So what about this year's governor's race? The keyword in the above statement is that the race is normal. Lynn Swann is not a normal candidate. He is known as a celebrity candidate. Here is a breakdown of how the celebrity factor can help Swann's campaign.
He has the network available to get financial backers from the start of his campaign.
His voter recognition numbers are higher than the incumbent due to being in the NFL and network television for more than 30 years.
Swann has the ability to move more voters to his side than Rendell. I say this because people are more firm in their opinions of experienced politicians. Lynn Swann, though highly recognizable even among non-voters, is still considered a political neophyte. He can win people over if he demonstrates that he has a firm grasp on the job and the issues of the people.
NOTE: Being a celebrity candidate can also hurt you. If you can't demonstrate that you can do the job you may be eaten alive by voters (see the Arnold Schwarzenegger saga).
In addition to being a celebrity Lynn Swann has who he is and what he has done to help him win.
In the NFL he played for the Pittsburgh Steelers during their "Steel Curtain" days. Pittsburgh fans have the loyalty that goes beyond political parties. He will steal votes from Democrats who are Steelers fans. With the win in the Super Bowl look for a strong Steelers faction at the polls to support Swann.
He is also an African-American. African-American candidates usually get stronger support from African-American voters. What makes this significant for Lynn Swann is that African-Americans tend to vote for Democrats.
The combination of the above two factors are related. They will allow Swann to weaken the Democratic stronghold of those urban areas. He may even win some of areas in and surrounding Pittsburgh which is unheard of in a Republican candidate.
Rendell won his last election by less than 150,000 votes. If half of those people (plus 1) vote for Swann, Swann wins. That is less than 2% of the expected turnout for this race. With all the factors mentioned earlier I think Lynn Swann can easily get those numbers.
Official Lynn Swann for Governor site
posted by PoliticalNut at 9:28 AM
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