Looking deeper into the Ohio Governor's Race

If you look at the map below you would say that there is a lot of red. That means that Ken Blackwell won a lot of counties in his 2002 race for Secretary of State. So you would assume that he has a strong advantage over his Democratic rival Ted Strickland.

That assumption could be wrong. Strickland is a popular Congressman from the eastern part of the state. This means that the results for Blackwell in those areas will be even softer than they were when he ran four years ago.

Strickland has his issues too. He hasn't run for a statewide race as highly profiled as this. While he is popular with his party, he must run a race beyond his congressional district and into the rest of the state that is strongly Republican.


What are Strickland Opportunities in this race?

• Republican scandals may have shaken the confidence of Blackwell's base as well as independents. A large DEM turnout could shift the election in his favor
• He is from the most Democratic congressional district in the state. He is a vote leader in that area

What are Blackwell's Opportunities?

• He is an experience campaigner in a statewide campaign
• He has higher name recognition statewide
• As an African-American he could steal minority votes from the Democrats

What Are Strickland's Weaknesses?

• Hasn't run a statewide race
• Democrats don't rule urban areas in Ohio like they do in other states. They only control the counties where Cleveland and Youngstown sit.
• Most counties are Republican

What are Blackwell's Weaknesses?

• The GOP as a party is vulnerable due to many issues
• Blackwell's results from 2002 were below the norm for a statewide Republican candidate (see the map below). That means that the party base wasn't nearly behind him as they were other candidates in that year.

What is my Projection for this race?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Blackwell wins with 55-58% of the vote.