Alito Confirmed

AS of 11:10 AM EST Justice Samuel Alito received the 51 votes needed for confirmation. Vote was 58-42.

Bush's Job Approval: 50%

According to Rasmussen Reports President Bush's approval rating has hit the 50% mark.

It has been on the rise since the Democrats started to balk on the Alito vote. It spiked when they started to discuss the use of the fillibuster and is a great example of how out of touch the liberal left actually is.

As a friend at Redstate put it, "they've bought into their own propaganda".

Chafee is a Republicrat

These are the words of Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island in relation to how he would vote on Judge Samuel Alito.

"I am a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-Bill of Rights Republican, and I will be voting against this nomination."

Translation: He acts like a Democrat, says he's a Republican. A Republicrat.

Ramifications of the Filibuster Attempt

Politics can be fickle. Democrats have spent the last couple of months crying out about the corruption in the Republican party. They spent countless hours trying to gain an advantage on their counterparts for the upcoming elections. But if they choose to attempt a filibuster on Monday, then all that effort will go to waste.

Voters tend to react most to an issue that is the most fresh news. The filibuster attempt will cause the corruption story to fade into the background.

There are political consequences to this filibuster. The Democrats become the party of obstructionist with the attempt or success of the filibuster. This muddles their message of "culture of corruption." Thus neutralizing this issue a bit.

Democrats in blue states will not be hurt. Possibly they will help them a bit as it is this base that is asking for the filibuster. However, those in contestable races in blue states may make their races tighter with the action.

Those Democrats that have spoken out against the filibuster such as Byrd or the members of the "Gang of 14" who vote for cloture, will not be affected unless in hard liberal areas.

Basically, a filibuster attempt can only help a few Democrats such as Hillary Clinton, Ted Kennedy, and John Kerry. That is it can help them in the short term. But the party as a whole loses the momentum it created during the Jack Abramoff issue. It kills their chances of controlling either the Congress, the Senate, and hurts their 2008 Presidential hopes.

Only in California, LA Times Endorses Republican

On Thursday the L.A. Times endorsed Paul McCloskey for Congress. Here are a couple of sniplets from the article.

“The best thing that could happen for the district, the state, the nation and possibly the Republican Party."

"He's the kind of Republican who in other states might be called a Democrat."

The article did a good job of explaining that he was a veteren opposed to Vietnam, supported John Kerry, "And as for environmentalism — well, it has been a long time since Teddy Roosevelt was in the White House."

If this guy is so aligned with what they call the great Democrat causes, then why isn't he running as a Democrat?

But I'm not done on this guy yet. Little Green Footballs pointed out that the Times failed to mention McCloskey's ties to the Institute for Historical Review. WHo are they? IHR is the leading Holocaust denial organization in the U.S.

Had the TImes given a fair assessment of McCloskey they should have provided that information.

Also keep in mind that this is the state that elected the intellecual Schwarzneggar. So its quite possible that this could be a case where a liberal newspaper endorses a Republican, and it doesn't automatically kill his chances at winning.

Byrd Supports Alito

Robert Byrd (D) West Virginia will vote to affirm Judge Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court. This is according to an article by James Rowley at Bloomberg.

In a Senate floor speech Byrd stated "I refuse simply simply to toe the party line when it comes to Supreme Court justices. I hail from a conservative state. And, like a majority of my constituents, I prefer conservative judges.''

Whether or not these are the true feelings behind Senator Byrd's comments is up to debate, though I choose to give him the benefit of the doubt. They were made days after a West Virginia businessman, John Raese announced his candidacy against him.

John Kerry Blames George Bush for Country's Divisiveness

John Kerry gave a speech about his concerns with Judge Samuel Alito. This is an exerpt from his tangent on George Bush within that speech.

“President Bush had the opportunity to nominate someone who would unite the country in a time of extreme divisiveness. He chose not to do this, and that is his right. But that he didn’t and how this nomination happened tells us a great deal about this presidency and how politics is driving this process. "

John Kerry speaks on divisiveness in politics. But in order to be unified don't both sides have to give concessions to the other? I'm not blaming this whole thing on Democrats. Republicans have problems of their own. But what have Democrats done in their part to unify the country?

Odds are that had Kerry won the Presidency and in the seat now occupied by Bush, he would have chosen a judge as far opposite as John Roberts as possible. It is also just as probable that he would have picked another liberal judge to replace Sandra Day O'Connor.

Politics is driving this process. But the reigns of the process are being led by mules.

Coburn and McCain to Fight Pork Projects

The following is a letter sent today by U.S. Senators Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) and John McCain (R-AZ). In summary it states that they intend to challenge all spending earmarks, better known as pork projects, on the Senate floor.

As a fiscal conservative I applaud the effort.


January 25, 2006


Dear Senator,

As you know, the American people are currently engaged in a vigorous debate about our country’s spending priorities. Many are openly discussing the propriety of earmarks and legislative policy provisions inserted into appropriations bills at the direction of individual lawmakers. We believe that the process of earmarking undermines the confidence of the American public in Congress because the practice is not open, fair, or competitive and tends to reward the politically well-connected.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the number of earmarks has skyrocketed over the past decade, from 4,126 in 1994 to 15,268 in 2005. We are committed to doing all we can to halt this egregious earmarking practice and plan to challenge future legislative earmarks that come to the Senate floor. This will give all Senators the opportunity to learn the merits of proposed earmarked projects and affirm or reject them. Even though votes on earmarks will undoubtedly be quite time-consuming, we sincerely believe that American taxpayers are entitled to a more thorough debate and disclosure about how their money is being spent.

We also believe that it is wrong to violate Senate Rules by inserting new provisions that are not included in either a Senate or House bill into conference reports at the last minute. The unsavory practice of inserting such provisions at the last minute stifles debate and empowers well-heeled lobbyists at the expense of those who cannot afford access to power. Decisions about how taxpayer dollars are spent should not be made in the dark, behind closed doors. Therefore, we also plan to challenge future violations of Senate Rules, and, as necessary, we will offer proposals to strengthen current Senate Rules in order to increase transparency and accountability in the expenditure of taxpayer dollars.

While we know that this course of action may not be popular in Washington, D.C., we believe that it is the right thing to do. We look forward to working with you over the next year, and we hope that you will join us in a spirited debate about the direction of our country.

Sincerely,




Senator Tom Coburn, M.D.

Senator John McCain

Press Release

Scranton Fires Campaign Manager

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial candidate Bill Scranton fired his campaign manager James Seif stated "The rich white guy in this campaign is Lynn Swann." during a televised call-in show on Wednesday.

Sranton issued an apology to Swann stating "(Seif's remarks) in no way whatsoever reflect my views or those of my campaign. I want to apologize to Lynn Swann, his family, supporters and PCN viewers for the offensive and disturbing comments made on my behalf."

Lynn Swann's campaign had no comment on the incident.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Scranton 's hopes for governor took a big hit because of this incident. The PR damage is obvious.

The flow of his campaign organization is a mess now as well. Imagine that your boss is fired in the middle of your company's busiest time of year. You get a new boss. This boss does things a little different than the old one and isn't familiar with anything. Scranton's campaign is in the same type of situation.

Bill Scranton's hopes are fading quickly. It was an uphill battle before this incident but is now a mountain climb. Look for Lynn Swann to take at around 60% of the vote.

Betty Montgomery for Ohio Attorney General

Today Betty Montgomery dropped out of the Ohio gubernatorial race. She is instead focusing her efforts on winning the Attorney General post vacated by Jim Petro. He is trying for the GOP bid to the Governor's mansion against Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.

This is a good move for Montgomery as she was well behind in polls and finances against both Petro and Blackwell. She should have the inside track on the position due to her experience at the position. She was the Attorney General for Ohio from 1994 to 2002.

The big loser in all of this is Jim Petro. He is losing momentum to Ken Blackwell in the Governor's race. It is possible that he may change gears like Montgomery and file for Blackwell's position as Secretary of State. If that should happen he would be the front-runner in that race.

Shadegg Gains Steam

The battle for who will replace Tom Delay is getting more interesting by the day. About two weeks ago Rep. Roy Blunt (MO) announced that he had enough pledges to win before being rebuffed by John Boehner (OH). Then on January 13 a new face appeared in the race.

Rep John Shadegg (AZ) announced his desire for the seat and is still considered a darkhorse to win. But he is gaining momentum.

Both Blunt and Boehner have had leadership positions in Congress. Thus their involvement in leadership that is perceived as tainted with corruption has given Shadegg and extra boost as he has not been in the same association as them.

Blunt claims to have 90 members supporting him. Boehner claims 44. It is unlikely that either are as high as they say they are. Basically its the peer-pressure tactic. Its reminds me of a peacockpuffing itself up to show its colors and attract others to it.

Shadegg says that the numbers his competitors proclaim were commitments made before he jumped into the fray. When asked how many support him he replies by saying he isn't going to spend time publicizing his endorsements as he needs to focus on getting a majority.

Tom Osborne Edging Heineman for Nebraska's Gubernatorial Bid

Its not the norm for an incumbant to fight in a primary in order to keep his job. Such is the case for Dave Heineman, Republican Governor of Nebraska. He is in a dogfight with popular congressman and former University of Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne.

My Prediction is Osborne will win the primary and general election. His popularity from his coaching career and success as a congressman will give him the advantage he needs.

Osborne is in a double-jeopardy situation similar to Ed Case in Hawaii. He is risking his current position for another. The difference is he's more popular in his state than Ed Case is in Hawaii.

With the situation of football heroes running for Governor for their respective states (.i.e. Lynn Swann). Would it surprise anybody if the likes of Mike Singletary ran for Governor in Illinois or john Elway in Colorado? Ha ha! ha?

GOP Calls for Rally behind Katherine Harris

Katherine Harris started her campaign with little support from her party. Republicans feared that she would act as a lightning rod for Democrats to get behind incumbant Bill Nelson. There is doubt that she can beat him. Her role in the Presidential recount as Secretary of State is notorius among Democrats.

Her fundraising abilities and wide name recognition have deterred other Republicans from entering against her. However, the big money is yet to come as donors have waited to see if someone else files their candidacy.

On Saturday top Republicans including Governor Jeb Bush backed Harris for the position. They called for the rest of the party to follow suit. Complete party unity in this campaign is unlikely though most of the party will be behind her. It will start slowly but reach full speed in plenty of time to make this a close race.

Nelson won his last election with only 51% of the vote. His Senate seat is one of the most vulnerable for the Democrats. Current polls and media articles claim that he holds a large lead over her. I expect that number to diminish between now and the May primary. After May the campaigning will go into overdrive.

The candidates are fairly even in capabilities for winning the seat. Nelson doesn't have an overwhelming base, but the base he has will be loyal. Harris has a larger base but her negatives could cause a split in votes.

I don't know who really has the advantage at this point. I'll have a better idea by the end of May and will give an update on this race at that time. The only thing I know is that Florida will have some contentious races this year.

Accusations Fly in Trial of Wisconsin Campaign Workers

The case involving 4 Kerry campaign workers vandalizing election vehicles last November was full of drama.

The defense lawyers for Sowande A. Omokunde, Michael Pratt, Lewis Caldwell, and Lavelle Mohammad claimed their clients were innocent. They stated that a group of Democratic operatives led by Oppel Simmons performed the crime in question and led authorities in the direction of their clients.

The Defense then got desperate. They hinted that the Republican Party cut the tires to implicate the Democrats. When this tactic didn't work they claimed that John Sweeney, AFL-CIO president and witness in the case, coordinated efforts to use violence as an intimidation tactic across the country.

Even though this crime happened in the 2004 elections, it could have ramnifications in 2006. Omokunde is the son of Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D).

Normally she would be safe as an incumbant since she took almost 70% of the vote in '04. But the defense of her son pointed fingers at both the Democratic party and Democratic supporters. Never bite the hand that feeds you.

The defendants made a plea deal.

Hotbed in Hawaii

If you are a Democratic Senator in Hawaii you've got it good (in more ways than one). Normally. But Senator Daniel Akaka is feeling the pressure from within. Fellow Democrat and Congressman Ed Case is challenging him in the primary.

Case is running against Akaka not because of his record, but because of his age. Akaka is 81 while Case is 53.

Why would a 2nd term Congressman take on a veteran Senator for a seat that his party already controls? Its a succession plan. Case is trying preserve the seat and prevent Akaka from dying in office. If he were to die the successor to his seat would be chosen by Governor Linda Lingle, a Republican.

Whether or not his plan would work is questionable. While his premise is good, an incumbant always has the advantage, even if he's 81.

This is a big risk by Case because if anybody from his party files for his seat, then he's done. He can only retain as a write-in candidate or if nobody files for his party's nomination.

Odds are somebody will want to take his seat and leave Case in the cold. Granted, how cold can it get in Hawaii?

Former "Apprentice" Contestant Runs for Congress

Lynn Swann isn't the only celebrity to run for public office in the state of Pennsylvania. Raj Peter Bhakta is running on the Republican ticket against incumbant Allison Schwartz (D) for the state's 13th congressional district seat.

You might ask how a "celebrity" can run for office and stay below the media wire. Well its simple. Bhakta just isn't an organized candidate. He appears to be grasping at straws to find himself and this campaign appears to be one of those attempts.

If he can get a good political mind behind his campaign he could stand a slight chance. The 13th district is not at all solid. The largest victory by a candidate since 2000 has been by 53% of the vote. A Dynamic and organized candidate could make it a race. Unfortunately Bhatka isn't it.

Trent Lott to Try Re-election

Trent Lott announced that he will seek a fourth term. He cited his need to push the post-Katrina cleanup in Mississippi as his top reason for trying to retain his post.

There is also speculation that he may try to regain a leadership position as well. No word on what that would be at this time.

It is an uphill battle for State Representative Eric Fleming to beat the popular Trent Lott. Had he not decided to run it would have made the open seat a hotly contested battleground.

Lott's announcement has more implications than just in Mississippi. It lowers the odds that Democrats can take control of the Senate.

Ohio Governor Update

It seems that the Petro camp is losing steam with Phil Heimlich. This makes this race a lot clearer as to who will face off in November.

Between Montgomery and Blackwell I think Blackwell will come out ahead. She will give a great effort and make it close. Especially in the Cleveland area, but Blackwell's numbers appear to be stronger elsewhere.

As for the Democratic ticket, Fingerhut has been gaining a grassroots groundswelling in the last week. However, I think there is just to much ground to be made against Strickland for him to overcome him. Strickland had a much higher name recognition to begin the campaign.

So it comes down to a chess match between Blackwell and Strickland. Who's going to win? At this point your guess is as good as mine.

The Battle Royale for Ohio Governor

Bob Taft (R) has reached his term limit. In the wake of the seat becoming open ten people have filed for the job. Some of the candidates are a recent who's who in Ohio politics. Others are more like a "who's that" kind of candidate.

Out of all these candidates the only ones creating any sort of buzz are Blackwell, Montgomery, Petro, Fingerhut, and Strickland. Blackwell currently leads Republican candidates while Strickland leads the Democrats. Whoever wins their party’s nomination for governor will face a long and gruesome battle. This will be especially close if it ends up Blackwell vs. Strickland.

Normally Blackwell would have a commanding edge as Secretary of State. However, there is a lingering distrust in him as the public perception is he obstructed the elections by disuading minorities to vote. I am currently analyzing the races in Ohio for the past 10 years and have found no evidence that this rumor is true. Also, have those who are making these accusations ever seen a picture of the man. I hardly think that this man (below) would chase minorities from the polls.


Ken Blackwell
Courtesy of Ohio Secretary of State website


Here is a breakdown of the candidates courtesy of USElections.com .

Larry Bays (R) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: Wayne County Park Commissioner

Ken Blackwell (R) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: Secretary of State
Former Posts: State Treasurer, Cincinnati Mayor

Pete Draganic (R) (running mate not named)
Occupation: General Contractor

Betty Montgomery (R) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: State Auditor
Former Posts: Attorney General, State Senator

Jim Petro (R)
Current Elected Position: Attorney General
Former Posts: State Auditor, State Representative
Running Mate: Phil Heimlich (R) - Hamilton County Commissioner, former Cincinnati Councilman
**NOTE: Heimlich officially quit the ticket as of 1/16/05

Eric Fingerhut (D) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: State Senator
Former Posts: Congressman, US Senate Nominee (2004)
Occupation: Attorney

Bryan Flannery (D) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: State Representative
Former Posts: 'Secretary of State Nominee (2002)
Occupation: Health Care Consultant

Ted Strickland (D) (running mate not named)
Current Elected Position: Congressman
Occupation: Psychologist

Bob Fitrakis (Green)
Occupation: Attorney, College Professor, Newspaper Editor
Political Activities: Progressive Activist
Running Mate: Anita Rios (Green) Ex-Green Party National Co-Chair & Liberal Activist

Bill Peirce (Libertarian) (running mate not named)
Occupation: Retired College Professor & Economist

I Hate Polls

Never trust a poll. They say numbers never lie, but the methodology in which they were taken might.

Polls were created to give a snapshot of what the public perception is on a particular topic.

Over the years we have learned that polls can be swayed by how the poll questions are presented or by taking the poll from a sample population that is not representative of the overall population.

What is most unfortunate is that political campaigns have learned that they can use flawed polls to be used as a PR tool. They count on the peer pressure effect to turn flawed results into real results.

Unfortunately this is successful because people don't often enough question what they hear or see (especially when it comes to numbers). So remember, when you hear anybody quote poll numbers, whether it be the news or a campaign, question the results.

The Tale of Two Toms, Delay Vs Campbell

As if Tom DeLay doesn't have enough things to worry about. He now has a primary opponent in lawyer Tom Campbell.

Campbell is no rookie to politics. He was part of Bob Dole's staff during his run for President.

Delay has been a popular choice for 22 years. This is the first time he has received a viable threat from a candidate in his own party. There are no numbers I can run to give a detailed analysis of how this race is going to shape up. However, seeing how the national spotlight has focused on Delay's issues as of late, Campbell stands a good chance of defeating the former majority leader.

The winner of this primary will face the winner of a hotly contested Democratic primary. The GOP winner will win the position.

Politics in the Big Easy Ain't Easy No More (Part 2)

A former aide to Congressman William Jefferson (D), Louisiana, pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting bribery of a public official and conspiracy. The sentencing of Brett Pfeffer is March 31. He could get up to twenty years.

Pfeffer testified in court that he had been by a congressman to assist in promoting business opportunities in both Nigeria and Ghana. In his testimony Pfeffer claimed that the congressmen demanded approximately 5 to 7 percent of the new companies in exchange for his help in promoting the deal to African government officials and others.

Though Pfeffer never mention Jefferson by name, document entered into evidence clearly show the unnamed Congressman to be Jefferson. Pfeffer has agreed to cooperate with investigators as they probe into the Congressman's involvement.

The bad news for the Democrats is that it hurts their ability to use ethics as a campaign platform. The corruption issue is no longer a one party problem as they claimed earlier in the week.

Politics in the Big Easy Ain't Easy No More (Part 1)

It has been a big week in Louisiana for politics.

On Tuesday, Kat Landry filed a petition to recall Governor Kathleen Blanco (D). The task is daunting and most likely will be unsuccessful without a grassroots firestorm. In order to recall the governor, Ms. Landry and her supporters faces severe challenges.

She needs 1/3 of the registered voters of Louisiana to sign the petition to recall Governor Blanco. This amounts to just under a million voters. Getting voters t turn out in a regular election is difficult enough, let alone for special circumstances such as this. Add to the fact that approximately 10% of the state's voters are displaced from the Gulf coast and the project gets even steeper.

To top it all off this needs to be done in 180 days.

Ms. Landry is a political neophyte. While it is refreshing to see someone take leadership, the coordination and political capital needed to pull off this feat is beyond her grasp. This can only be pulled off if the state Republican party or other organization of that magnitude steps in.

Harris Miller to challenge for US Senate in Virginia

As we get back into the campaign season, I will be looking at potential races of interest.

First off is Harris Miller. Today he announced that he will take on George Allen (R) for a US Senate seat in Virginia.

Miller was the president of the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA). So money should not be an issue.

George Allen won his last election with 52.3%. This is hardly an overwhelming number. It is only about 130,000 votes. Virginia has been consistantly Republican in federal races but all have been contestable.

His most visible weakness is issues. When pressed for how he stands on issues such as abortion, the War in Iraq, and the economy, Miller stated he would give those answers in short time. That is a no-no in campaign strategy. These are standard issues questions. He should have prepared answers for them before he announced his candidacy. By not providing answers to where he stands it appears as if he has no stance on those issues (see the related article on Why Democrats Lose).

Campaigns are marathons. Many things will happen between now and November. Can Harris Miller (D) beat incumbant George Allen (R)? I think that Allen will win with about 54% unless something dramatic happens in this campaign.

Congresswoman Slaughter Claims Republicans are for Sale

In a weekly radio address, Congresswoman Louise Slaughter of New York stated

"Under Republican guidance, America has truly been put up for sale to the highest bidder." she continued by saying "lobbyists are now writing the bills passed by Congress," she contended. "They have infiltrated every aspect of our government. Their money and donations shape the opinions of corrupt lawmakers in a way that public opinion no longer does."

Here are the facts as provided from opensecrets.org and the Federal Election Commission.


In the last 14 years

1. Democrats have received more money annually from lobbyists by a 6-2 margin

2. Democrats have received 53% of the lobbyist dollars during that time

3. Congresswoman Slaughter has received over $1 million dollars from Political Action

Committees since 1997

(Ms. Slaughter, Political Action Committees do not give money and not expect results from their candidates. In fact it is common for a PAC to hire lobbyists as well.)

The problem of corruption is not partisan. It is an American problem.

The problem of lobbyist influence is a growing problem. It is a long-existing problem. It is a bipartisan problem.

If Congresswoman Slaughter is prepared to play the "higher-moral fiber" card. Then she needs to have a better grasp of recent historical facts.

Where lobbyist Money Went

The Flip-Flopping NY Times

I am confused. The following quotes are from the NY Times from 2 years apart. Is it me or do they contradict themselves? I'll let you be the judge.

“After an egregiously long delay, Attorney General John Ashcroft finally did the right thing yesterday when he recused himself from the investigation into who gave the name of a CIA operative to the columnist Robert Novak. Mr. Ashcroft turned the inquiry over to his deputy, who quickly appointed a special counsel.”

–New York Times editorial, “The Right Thing, At Last,” December 31, 2003


“A democratic society cannot long survive if whistle-blowers are criminally punished for revealing what those in power don’t want the public to know - especially if it’s unethical, illegal or unconstitutional behavior by top officials. Reporters need to be able to protect these sources, regardless of whether the sources are motivated by policy disputes or nagging consciences. This is doubly important with an administration as dedicated as this one is to extreme secrecy.”

New York Times editorial, “On the Subject of Leaks,” January 4, 2006

Further Campaign Finance Reform Needed

How important are lobbyists to Congressional members? Members from both parties collected $26.8 million for their campaign coffers in 2004. This money was splint 51%-49% between Republicans and Democrats. Every incumbent needs this extra source of campaign money in order to give them an advantage over their challengers.

In a speech to a Washington Rotary Club on Wednesday, Newt Gingerich stated that reform is needed in order to level the playing field for Congressional elections. But he also warned Congressional leaders to refrain from “lobbyist bashing” and focus on changing campaign finance laws to reduce the power of lobbyists. "You can't have a corrupt lobbyist unless you have a corrupt member (of Congress) or a corrupt staff. This was a team effort."

He finished by saying "If they (Republican leaders) intend to retain a majority, then they need to take the lead in saying to the country we need to clean this mess up. "But any effort to push this under the rug, to say this is just one bad apple: That's baloney."

I think he’s right. Looking at the dramatic increase in lobbyist influence over the last 15 years, it is disturbing. In 1990 only $3 million was given by lobbyists. It has increased by more than 8 fold.

Data and Graph Courtesy of the Center for Responsive Politics.

*The figures for 2004 do not include donations of "Levin" funds to state and local party committees. Levin funds were created by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002.

METHODOLOGY: The numbers on are based on contributions of $200 or more from PACs and individuals to federal candidates and from PAC, soft money and individual donors to political parties, as reported to the Federal Election Commission. While election cycles are shown in charts as 1996, 1998, 2000 etc. they actually represent two-year periods. For example, the 2002 election cycle runs from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2002.

NOTE: Soft money contributions to the national parties were not publicly disclosed until the 1991-92 election cycle, and were banned by the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act following the 2002 elections.

NFL-Great Lynn Swann Announces Candidacy

This is no joke nor is it a rumor. Lynn Swann, 55. Declared his candidacy for the governor of Pennsylvania. If he is successful he will become the first African-American governor of the state.

Swann won 4 Super Bowl rings for the Pittsburg Steelers before joining ABC Sports after his retirement. His popularity from his playing days and constant visibility should give him an edge on an opponent in the primary.

If he wins the primary (and he should) Swann will most likely face Democrat Ed Rendell, who is seeking a second term at the post. Rendell won in 2002 with 53% of the 3.58 million votes cast.

Swanny should have a favorite son status amongst voters. The question is whether or not he can garner the approximate 125,000 votes he will need to take away from Rendell. I will further analyze this race in the spring should he win the primary.

Democrats Smell Blood

Democrats are smelling blood as Jack Abramoff has made a plea deal with the DOJ. As the DOJ extends its investigations into legistlators and their staff the Democrats see as an opportunity to use ethics as a campaign issue.

One word of warning about this tactic for the Democracts. Thirteen members of Congress (all Democrats) voted against the impeachment of President Bill Clinton. They fought this saying that personal ethics had no bearing on his job. While the context of then and now is different, in an election fact doesn't override public opinion. Using ethics as a campaign issue coul be a slippery slope.

Those who are guilty should be prosecuted. Republicans and Democrats alike need to be held accountable for their actions. What is just as important as the investigation is what legistlators are doing to prevent this from happening again.

Trump Says No

In a follow up to an earlier story. On Tuesday Donald Trump denied rumors that he would run for governor.

"I'm not going to run for governor because I'm having too much fun doing what I'm doing now," Trump told the New York Post. "I have no interest in running for public office at this time."

State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno had said named Trump as a possible Republican candidate for NY Governor.

NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is the only declared Democratic candidate for governor. Trump told the Post "He's (Spitzer) done an amazing job," and he (Trump) might support Spitzer for governor.

The only question here is about Bruno and the NY Republican party. If the name they leaked for a possible candidate for their party is supporting the opposite party's candidate, then a)how desperate are they for a candidate, abd b) how much are the NY GOP in disarray?

Donald Trump - Republican candidate for NY Governor

Rumors have started circulating in the last week that Donald Trump may make a bid for the Governor of New York. What is surprising about this is that he will supposedly run as a Republican.

We've seen what happens when a celebrity runs for a race such as this (Gubernator Shwarzneggar). But if this race happens it will be a much more solid race.

The question remains as to how Trump stacks up on ideology. He has shown disdain to both parties when asked political questions on shows like Late Night with Conan Obrien. This labels him as a political maverick of sorts.

There is a saying "Put your money where your mouth is." In politics this means that people tend to give towards their ideologies. while this isn't 100% true. People in Trump's position will give to the power structure in a defensive move or to seek favor from those in office.

However, Donald Trump has an extensive history of giving in politics. here is a summary of his giving from 1998 to present.


Noteworthy candidates:
Arlen Spector, (R), $1500
Rudi Giuliani, (R), $1000
Erskine Bowles,(D) , $1000
Hillary Clinton,(D) $2000
Tom Daschle, (D) ,$4000
John Kerry,(D) , $500
Joe Lieberman,(D) , $2000
Harry Reid,(D) , $5000

Republican candidates: 36 times for $25,500.
Democratic candidates: 36 times for $35,150.
Advantage DEM candidates by $9650

Republican Committees and PACs: 7 times for $39,000
Democratic Committees and PACs:14 times for $92,000
Advantage DEM Committees and PACs by $53,000

TOTAL Contributions from 1998 to present:
REP 43 times for $64,500
DEM 50 times for $127,150
Advantage DEM by $62,650

From this evidence it is likely that Mr. Trump would run as a moderate to moderately liberal Republican.

For more information on the contibutions made by Donald Trump, candidates, or committees visit the Federal Election Commission.

All data used in this analysis provided by the FEC. If you would like a printout of my analysis email me at admin@politicalnut.com