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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Hillary Clinton on the Issues

Abortion - Supports abortion rights

Gun Control - Supports licensing and registration of handguns, mandatory trigger locks for handguns, holding adults responsible for their children's use of guns, raising the youth handgun ban from age 18 to 21, limiting gun sales to one per month and allowing the Consumer Products Safety Commission regulate guns.

Health Care - Wants to mandate individual health insurance coverage for all Americans. Offer federal subsidies for those who cannot afford it and allow individuals to choose private plans also offered to members of Congress, as well as a new public insurance plan modeled after Medicare. Requires insurance companies to offer coverage to anyone who applies, and bars insurance companies from charging higher premiums to those with pre-existing condidtions. Requires large businesses to provide or help pay for employee coverage. Expands Medicaid and federal children's health care programs. Offers tax credits to limit health care premiums to a certain percentage a family's income. Cost estimated at $110 billion annually, to be paid for by eliminating the Bush tax cuts for those earning over $250,000, as well as by reducing waste and inefficiencies in the current system. Also limits the amount employers can exclude from taxes for health care benefits for those making over $250,000.

Immigration - Supported Bush-backed immigration reform legislation, which would have increased funding and improved border security technology, improved enforcement of existing laws, and provided a legal path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants. Voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.

War in Iraq - Voted for use of troops in Iraq, but now opposes the war. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Opposed Bush plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Supports a phased redeployment and a cap on the number of American troops in Iraq.

Gay Marriage - Opposes same-sex marriage but supports civil unions. She says states should decide the issue. Opposes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

Social Security - Opposes the Bush plan allowing workers to divert some Social Security payroll taxes into private retirement accounts.

Taxes - Opposes the Bush tax cuts

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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Taking a Closer Look at the Iowa Results

The story on the Democrat side of Thursday's results in Iowa wasn't so much that Barak Obama won but rather Hillary Clinton got 3rd behind John Edwards. Obama received 38%, Edwards 30%, and Clinton 29%. The rest of the Democrat ticket combined for only 3% of the turnout.

With Republicans, Huckabee and Romney broke away from the pack with 34% and 25% of the vote. The big shocker in this one was Guiliani only getting 3%.Guiliani came in 6th amongst GOP candidates trailing 5th place Ron Paul by a whopping 7%. Thompson and McCain tied for 3rd with 13%.



DemocratsRepublicans
Obama 38% Huckabee 34%
Edwards 30% Romney 25%
Clinton 29% Thompson 13%
Richardson 2% McCain 13%
Biden 1% Paul 10%
Dodd 0% Guiliani 3%
Gravel 0% Hunter 0%
Kucinich 0% Tancredo

0%

Looking at the numbers the Clinton camp has to be a little worried about a snowball effect. Should Obama, Edwards, and Clinton finish in the same exact order in New Hampshire expect the spread to be larger with Obama taking from both candidates.

It is a troubling sign for a campaign such as Romney's to pour so much money into a primary and finish 9 points back. When asked about his thoughts on being beat by he said he was happy to cut Huckabee's lead in half. Sorry folks, when the money spent in the final week of a campaign is so heavy and so lobsided the campaign spending the money should only be 3 points from the lead in most worst case scenarios. His numbers should rebound in New Hampshire.

Guiliani knew he was tanking in Iowa a few weeks ago and deployed the cut-and-run tactic to try and get a head start on New Hampshire. This is a dangerous tactic because voters aren't always rational and as a mass are prone to further trends seen in recent primaries. That said I believe he will rebound in New Hampshire but will find things less inviting as he moves into states farther away from the Atlantic. The evangelical vote will eventually sink him.

By now most of you must be expecting me to declare Huckabee as the GOP Nominee. I'm not going to do that. I don't think we will have a truly clear picture until there is a more diverse set of results. However, Thompson, McCain, Paul, and Guiliani must put themselves within 10% of the leader over the course of the next two primaries. Those that cannot accomplish that are done and should drop out.

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