Can Democrats Take back the House?

I've been reading many articles by hopeful Democratic pollsters that think their party can take control of Congress in 2006. They site the myriad of issues that have pounded the Republican party over the last year. Abramoff, Katrina, Iraq, and domestic spying have made Republicans weak in the upcoming elections.

History has shown that when the party in power is shown to be as weak as the Republicans are now, the minority party devours the majority power. Many journalists and pollsters are quick to make this claim.

The comparison is pretty much worthless. In those days there were more people who would today be considered swing voters. But most importantly, both parties were closer in terms of strength and identity.

Today's Democratic party is in the midst of an identity crisis. For them to take full advantage of the Republican weakness they need to be a strong party with a platform that resonates with voters.

Some may ask what is my evidence that the Democrats aren't going to surge over Republican territories? According to polls there are not massive amounts of Republican incumbents battling their Democratic rivals.

Republican incumbents are actually in more danger from their primary opponents than Democrats. The weakness of the GOP is only manifesting itself in its ability to challenge Democrat incumbents.

When all's said and done the ebb and flow of party wins and losses will result in a stalemate where Republicans retain the majority.