Congressional Consequence of the President's Approval Rating

President Bush has seen his approval rating at 47 percent, a jump 8 percent since November. This is due to what appears to be a successful election process in Iraq where approximately two-thirds of voters turned out to the polls. Public perception in the U.S. is that Iraq is becoming increasingly self-sufficient and will allow more of our troops to come home.

Many question what this means for members of Congress who are looking for re-election in 2006. In brief, it means very little.

Most Congressional races are solidly one party or the other. They are not in play just as many states were not in play for last year’s Presidential race.

In order for the poll to affect the Congressional seats in play the President needs to grow his ratings above 50 percent and sustain that number for an extended period of time. Otherwise this poll will have been a blip on the radar that has long been forgotten by voters.

In January, this blog will discuss why the public should be wary of polls.